Model record
How every Dupin model has actually performed, by market, league and team.
How to read thisShow
Backtest
Each past match re-predicted using only data from before its kick-off, since Sep 2024. Kept separate from the live record.Skill
How much less error the model makes than always guessing the market's average rate (Brier skill score). Above 0 beats that guess, below 0 does worse. A few percent is a real gain for football.Said → happened
When the model gives a probability, does it come true that often? Close numbers mean honest probabilities. Each tile checks the model's surest 10% of calls; the calibration chart shows every band.Match result
Strong+4.3%
less error than guessing the average
- Matches tested
- 17,958
- Its surest 10% of calls (52%+)
- said 59%→happened 60%5,388 calls
outright-v3
Goals
Solid+2.1%
less error than guessing the average
- Matches tested
- 17,978
- Its surest 10% of calls (91%+)
- said 94%→happened 94%14,384 calls
goals-v4
Goals by half
Marginal+1.0%
less error than guessing the average
- Matches tested
- 17,736
- Its surest 10% of calls (78%+)
- said 81%→happened 82%8,872 calls
halves-v1
Cards
Strong+4.6%
less error than guessing the average
- Matches tested
- 17,616
- Its surest 10% of calls (81%+)
- said 86%→happened 86%7,048 calls
cards-v2
Corners
Marginal+0.9%
less error than guessing the average
- Matches tested
- 17,601
- Its surest 10% of calls (64%+)
- said 67%→happened 68%5,282 calls
corners-v2
Player stats
Strong+6.5%
less error than guessing the average
- Matches tested
- 17,333
- Its surest 10% of calls (64%+)
- said 72%→happened 71%240,854 calls
player-counts-v2
Cards · calibration
on the line = honest probabilities
Cards · by market
| Market | Said | Happened | Skill | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 cards | 78% | 78% | +3.4% | |
| Over 3.5 cards | 60% | 62% | +4.7% | |
| Over 4.5 cards | 41% | 44% | +5.1% | |
| Over 5.5 cards | 25% | 28% | +4.9% |
Cards · by league
best first · 20+ matches
| # | League | Matches | Skill | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Coppa ItaliaItaly | 20 | +32.1% | |
| 2 | League CupEngland | 75 | +17.5% | |
| 3 | EredivisieNetherlands | 617 | +12.5% | |
| 4 | Liga Profesional ArgentinaArgentina | 1,157 | +12.4% | |
| 5 | Eerste DivisieNetherlands | 775 | +10.5% | |
| 6 | Segunda DivisiónSpain | 844 | +8.9% | |
| 7 | Primeira LigaPortugal | 565 | +8.0% | |
| 8 | Serie BItaly | 717 | +7.3% | |
| 9 | 2. BundesligaGermany | 568 | +7.2% | |
| 10 | A-LeagueAustralia | 284 | +6.3% | |
| 11 | Serie ABrazil | 812 | +5.6% | |
| 12 | Serie AItaly | 716 | +5.0% | |
| 13 | UEFA Champions League | 427 | +4.3% | |
| 14 | League OneEngland | 1,134 | +4.0% | |
| 15 | ChampionshipEngland | 1,145 | +2.7% | |
| 16 | Super LeagueSwitzerland | 440 | +2.1% | |
| 17 | La LigaSpain | 719 | +2.0% | |
| 18 | Ligue 1France | 577 | +1.9% | |
| 19 | PremiershipScotland | 438 | +1.9% | |
| 20 | BundesligaGermany | 569 | +1.9% | |
| 21 | Liga MXMexico | 682 | +1.8% | |
| 22 | UEFA Europa LeagueWorld | 73 | +1.5% | |
| 23 | Jupiler Pro LeagueBelgium | 568 | +1.4% | |
| 24 | Premier LeagueEngland | 730 | +1.3% | |
| 25 | Major League SoccerUSA | 1,142 | +0.2% | |
| 26 | League TwoEngland | 1,090 | +0.1% | |
| 27 | Ligue 2France | 584 | −0.3% | |
| 28 | UEFA Europa Conference LeagueWorld | 93 | −3.4% | |
| 29 | Coupe de FranceFrance | 28 | −41.8% |
Cards · by team
best first · 10+ matches
| # | Team | Matches | Skill | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cosenza | 33 | +29.4% | |
| 2 | Almere City FC | 75 | +28.8% | |
| 3 | Corinthians | 82 | +28.2% | |
| 4 | SSV Ulm 1846 | 29 | +27.2% | |
| 5 | Waalwijk | 73 | +26.9% | |
| 6 | Heerenveen | 68 | +25.3% | |
| 7 | Real Sociedad II | 37 | +25.1% | |
| 8 | San Lorenzo | 81 | +25.0% | |
| 9 | MVV | 78 | +24.7% | |
| 10 | Excelsior | 72 | +23.7% | |
| 11 | Rosario Central | 82 | +22.6% | |
| 12 | Atletico Goianiense | 14 | +22.0% | |
| 13 | Jong Utrecht | 78 | +21.9% | |
| 14 | Willem II | 75 | +21.8% | |
| 15 | GO Ahead Eagles | 66 | +21.6% | |
| 16 | Adelaide United | 45 | +20.9% | |
| 17 | Instituto Cordoba | 77 | +20.4% | |
| 18 | San Martin S.J. | 27 | +20.2% | |
| 19 | Gimnasia L.P. | 82 | +20.2% | |
| 20 | Zaragoza | 66 | +19.6% | |
| 21 | Jong PSV U21 | 78 | +19.6% | |
| 22 | Racing Santander | 78 | +19.4% | |
| 23 | Huracan | 82 | +19.4% | |
| 24 | Deportivo Riestra | 77 | +19.3% | |
| 25 | FC Andorra | 36 | +18.9% | |
| 26 | Cordoba | 77 | +18.7% | |
| 27 | Mirandes | 72 | +18.7% | |
| 28 | Preußen Münster | 57 | +18.4% | |
| 29 | Telstar | 77 | +17.8% |
Top 29 of 501 · search for any team