Model record

How every Dupin model has actually performed, by market, league and team.

How to read thisShow

Backtest

Each past match re-predicted using only data from before its kick-off, since Sep 2024. Kept separate from the live record.

Skill

How much less error the model makes than always guessing the market's average rate (Brier skill score). Above 0 beats that guess, below 0 does worse. A few percent is a real gain for football.

Said → happened

When the model gives a probability, does it come true that often? Close numbers mean honest probabilities. Each tile checks the model's surest 10% of calls; the calibration chart shows every band.

Match result

Strong

+4.3%

less error than guessing the average

Matches tested: 17,958
Its surest 10% of calls (52%+): said 59%→happened 60%
5,388 calls

less error than guessing the average

Matches tested: 17,978
Its surest 10% of calls (91%+): said 94%→happened 94%
14,384 calls

less error than guessing the average

Matches tested: 17,736
Its surest 10% of calls (78%+): said 81%→happened 82%
8,872 calls

less error than guessing the average

Matches tested: 17,616
Its surest 10% of calls (81%+): said 86%→happened 86%
7,048 calls

less error than guessing the average

Matches tested: 17,601
Its surest 10% of calls (64%+): said 67%→happened 68%
5,282 calls

less error than guessing the average

Matches tested: 17,333
Its surest 10% of calls (64%+): said 72%→happened 71%
240,854 calls

player-counts-v2

Match result · calibration

on the line = honest probabilities

Match result · by market

Market	Said	Happened	Skill
Away win	31%	30%	+5.7%
Draw	24%	26%	+0.5%
Home win	45%	44%	+6.1%

Match result · by league

best first · 20+ matches

#	League	Matches	Skill
1	Primeira LigaPortugal	574	+13.4%
2	Serie AItaly	731	+10.5%
3	Coppa ItaliaItaly	20	+8.7%
4	La LigaSpain	729	+8.5%
5	PremiershipScotland	447	+7.3%
6	UEFA Champions League	435	+7.0%
7	Ligue 1France	586	+6.8%
8	BundesligaGermany	579	+6.6%
9	Jupiler Pro LeagueBelgium	577	+5.9%
10	Liga MXMexico	693	+5.9%
11	EredivisieNetherlands	626	+5.6%
12	Premier LeagueEngland	740	+5.4%
13	Serie ABrazil	824	+5.1%
14	UEFA Europa LeagueWorld	81	+4.3%
15	UEFA Europa Conference LeagueWorld	96	+4.3%
16	League CupEngland	81	+3.8%
17	Eerste DivisieNetherlands	788	+3.4%
18	League OneEngland	1,154	+2.8%
19	Major League SoccerUSA	1,172	+2.6%
20	Liga Profesional ArgentinaArgentina	1,175	+2.4%
21	Segunda DivisiónSpain	870	+2.2%
22	Super LeagueSwitzerland	446	+2.0%
23	Ligue 2France	595	+2.0%
24	Serie BItaly	728	+1.9%
25	A-LeagueAustralia	290	+1.6%
26	League TwoEngland	1,115	+1.6%
27	ChampionshipEngland	1,157	+1.1%
28	2. BundesligaGermany	577	+1.1%
29	Coupe de FranceFrance	30	−3.0%

Match result · by team

best first · 10+ matches

#	Team	Matches	Skill
1	FC Porto	68	+31.2%
2	Barcelona	100	+30.1%
3	Bayern München	92	+29.9%
4	Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto	26	+27.7%
5	Benfica	95	+26.3%
6	Sporting CP	88	+25.4%
7	Paris Saint Germain	98	+24.5%
8	Real Madrid	101	+23.2%
9	Inter	100	+22.5%
10	Slavia Praha	10	+20.1%
11	Celtic	93	+19.6%
12	FC Cartagena	37	+18.9%
13	Sport Recife	33	+17.7%
14	Boavista	29	+17.1%
15	Lecce	74	+16.7%
16	PSV Eindhoven	88	+16.7%
17	Arsenal	102	+16.6%
18	FK Crvena Zvezda	12	+16.5%
19	AS Roma	76	+16.0%
20	AVS	57	+15.8%
21	Union St. Gilloise	86	+15.8%
22	Slovan Bratislava	15	+15.3%
23	Heracles	70	+14.6%
24	Cruz Azul	84	+14.5%
25	Flamengo	86	+14.3%
26	Beerschot VA	30	+14.2%
27	Red Bull Salzburg	14	+14.2%
28	Puebla	71	+13.9%
29	Feyenoord	84	+13.7%

Top 29 of 504 · search for any team