Model record

How every Dupin model has actually performed, by market, league and team.

How to read thisShow

Backtest

Each past match re-predicted using only data from before its kick-off, since Sep 2024. Kept separate from the live record.

Skill

How much less error the model makes than always guessing the market's average rate (Brier skill score). Above 0 beats that guess, below 0 does worse. A few percent is a real gain for football.

Said → happened

When the model gives a probability, does it come true that often? Close numbers mean honest probabilities. Each tile checks the model's surest 10% of calls; the calibration chart shows every band.

Match result

Strong

+4.3%

less error than guessing the average

Matches tested: 17,958
Its surest 10% of calls (52%+): said 59%→happened 60%
5,388 calls

less error than guessing the average

Matches tested: 17,978
Its surest 10% of calls (91%+): said 94%→happened 94%
14,384 calls

less error than guessing the average

Matches tested: 17,736
Its surest 10% of calls (78%+): said 81%→happened 82%
8,872 calls

less error than guessing the average

Matches tested: 17,616
Its surest 10% of calls (81%+): said 86%→happened 86%
7,048 calls

less error than guessing the average

Matches tested: 17,601
Its surest 10% of calls (64%+): said 67%→happened 68%
5,282 calls

less error than guessing the average

Matches tested: 17,333
Its surest 10% of calls (64%+): said 72%→happened 71%
240,854 calls

player-counts-v2

Player stats · calibration

on the line = honest probabilities

Player stats · by market

Market	Said	Happened	Skill
Player 1+ assist	7%	7%	+2.1%
Player 1+ fouls won	57%	57%	+7.2%
Player 2+ fouls won	24%	25%	+8.4%
Player 1+ fouls	61%	61%	+3.1%
Player 2+ fouls	27%	27%	+3.5%
Player 1+ shots on target	27%	27%	+11.7%
Player 2+ shots on target	7%	7%	+8.5%

Player stats · by league

best first · 20+ matches

#	League	Matches	Skill
1	Major League SoccerUSA	1,174	+8.5%
2	UEFA Champions League	442	+7.6%
3	Primeira LigaPortugal	552	+7.6%
4	A-LeagueAustralia	261	+7.5%
5	Coupe de FranceFrance	55	+7.4%
6	Serie ABrazil	851	+7.1%
7	Serie BItaly	698	+7.1%
8	La LigaSpain	686	+6.9%
9	Premier LeagueEngland	696	+6.8%
10	BundesligaGermany	544	+6.7%
11	Liga MXMexico	660	+6.6%
12	Eerste DivisieNetherlands	742	+6.6%
13	Jupiler Pro LeagueBelgium	563	+6.5%
14	Liga Profesional ArgentinaArgentina	1,187	+6.4%
15	PremiershipScotland	425	+6.3%
16	Ligue 1France	551	+6.3%
17	Segunda DivisiónSpain	843	+6.3%
18	Ligue 2France	567	+6.2%
19	Serie AItaly	688	+6.1%
20	2. BundesligaGermany	550	+6.1%
21	Super LeagueSwitzerland	431	+6.1%
22	EredivisieNetherlands	589	+6.0%
23	ChampionshipEngland	1,100	+5.5%
24	League OneEngland	1,100	+5.5%
25	League TwoEngland	1,078	+5.1%
26	DFB PokalGermany	46	+4.9%
27	UEFA Europa Conference LeagueWorld	74	+4.6%
28	League CupEngland	84	+3.9%
29	UEFA Europa LeagueWorld	51	+3.9%
30	Coppa ItaliaItaly	24	+3.6%

Player stats · by team

best first · 10+ matches

#	Team	Matches	Skill
1	Bayern München	90	+14.7%
2	Inter Miami	83	+13.9%
3	Real Madrid	98	+13.1%
4	San Diego	62	+13.1%
5	Famalicao	61	+12.8%
6	Boavista	24	+12.3%
7	Spezia	64	+12.2%
8	Charlotte	79	+12.1%
9	Los Angeles Galaxy	79	+12.1%
10	Rio Ave	61	+11.6%
11	Zulte Waregem	30	+11.4%
12	Deportivo Riestra	79	+11.1%
13	Reggiana	60	+11.1%
14	New England Revolution	77	+11.1%
15	1. FC Kaiserslautern	63	+10.9%
16	Auckland	43	+10.8%
17	New York City FC	83	+10.7%
18	Sydney	41	+10.7%
19	Barcelona	97	+10.6%
20	Western United	19	+10.5%
21	Velez Sarsfield	79	+10.4%
22	Colorado Rapids	77	+10.3%
23	Paris Saint Germain	96	+10.2%
24	RB Leipzig	71	+10.2%
25	Palmeiras	85	+10.0%
26	Valladolid	73	+9.9%
27	Atletico San Luis	72	+9.9%
28	Cambuur	74	+9.6%
29	Newcastle	84	+9.5%
30	Toluca	81	+9.5%

Top 30 of 487 · search for any team