Model record

How every Dupin model has actually performed, by market, league and team.

How to read thisShow

Backtest

Each past match re-predicted using only data from before its kick-off, since Sep 2024. Kept separate from the live record.

Skill

How much less error the model makes than always guessing the market's average rate (Brier skill score). Above 0 beats that guess, below 0 does worse. A few percent is a real gain for football.

Said → happened

When the model gives a probability, does it come true that often? Close numbers mean honest probabilities. Each tile checks the model's surest 10% of calls; the calibration chart shows every band.

Match result

Strong

+4.3%

less error than guessing the average

Matches tested: 17,958
Its surest 10% of calls (52%+): said 59%→happened 60%
5,388 calls

less error than guessing the average

Matches tested: 17,978
Its surest 10% of calls (91%+): said 94%→happened 94%
14,384 calls

less error than guessing the average

Matches tested: 17,736
Its surest 10% of calls (78%+): said 81%→happened 82%
8,872 calls

less error than guessing the average

Matches tested: 17,616
Its surest 10% of calls (81%+): said 86%→happened 86%
7,048 calls

less error than guessing the average

Matches tested: 17,601
Its surest 10% of calls (64%+): said 67%→happened 68%
5,282 calls

less error than guessing the average

Matches tested: 17,333
Its surest 10% of calls (64%+): said 72%→happened 71%
240,854 calls

player-counts-v2

Corners · calibration

on the line = honest probabilities

Corners · by market

Market	Said	Happened	Skill
Over 8.5 corners	60%	63%	+0.8%
Over 9.5 corners	49%	51%	+0.9%
Over 10.5 corners	39%	39%	+1.0%

Corners · by league

best first · 20+ matches

#	League	Matches	Skill
1	PremiershipScotland	438	+3.8%
2	Liga Profesional ArgentinaArgentina	1,157	+3.5%
3	Eerste DivisieNetherlands	775	+3.3%
4	Serie AItaly	716	+2.2%
5	UEFA Europa LeagueWorld	71	+1.5%
6	League OneEngland	1,134	+1.3%
7	2. BundesligaGermany	568	+1.3%
8	Premier LeagueEngland	730	+1.2%
9	Liga MXMexico	681	+1.0%
10	Serie BItaly	716	+1.0%
11	Ligue 2France	582	+0.8%
12	La LigaSpain	719	+0.7%
13	Super LeagueSwitzerland	440	+0.6%
14	ChampionshipEngland	1,145	+0.5%
15	Primeira LigaPortugal	565	+0.5%
16	Ligue 1France	576	+0.4%
17	Jupiler Pro LeagueBelgium	568	+0.4%
18	League TwoEngland	1,090	+0.2%
19	Major League SoccerUSA	1,142	+0.1%
20	Segunda DivisiónSpain	844	+0.1%
21	EredivisieNetherlands	617	+0.1%
22	UEFA Champions League	424	0.0%
23	A-LeagueAustralia	284	−0.1%
24	BundesligaGermany	569	−0.3%
25	Serie ABrazil	812	−0.3%
26	Coupe de FranceFrance	28	−0.5%
27	UEFA Europa Conference LeagueWorld	90	−2.2%
28	League CupEngland	75	−3.7%
29	Coppa ItaliaItaly	20	−8.7%

Corners · by team

best first · 10+ matches

#	Team	Matches	Skill
1	Barracas Central	78	+20.3%
2	Ross County	35	+15.8%
3	Banfield	75	+13.8%
4	Platense	80	+13.7%
5	Central Cordoba de Santiago	77	+12.9%
6	Moreirense	64	+11.0%
7	Rangers	78	+10.6%
8	Como	75	+10.2%
9	FC OSS	79	+9.6%
10	Criciuma	14	+9.3%
11	Den Bosch	82	+9.3%
12	Celtic	90	+9.0%
13	Cittadella	33	+8.3%
14	VVV Venlo	79	+8.2%
15	Fiorentina	71	+7.7%
16	Lanus	79	+7.6%
17	AS Roma	75	+7.6%
18	Salernitana	33	+7.6%
19	Pafos	13	+7.4%
20	Gillingham	92	+7.4%
21	De Graafschap	79	+7.3%
22	Celta Vigo	75	+7.3%
23	SC Braga	66	+7.2%
24	Jong PSV U21	78	+7.1%
25	Remo	27	+7.0%
26	Deportivo Riestra	77	+7.0%
27	SSV Jahn Regensburg	29	+7.0%
28	Union Santa Fe	78	+6.9%
29	Argentinos JRS	83	+6.9%

Top 29 of 501 · search for any team