Model record
How every Dupin model has actually performed, by market, league and team.
How to read thisShow
Backtest
Each past match re-predicted using only data from before its kick-off, since Sep 2024. Kept separate from the live record.Skill
How much less error the model makes than always guessing the market's average rate (Brier skill score). Above 0 beats that guess, below 0 does worse. A few percent is a real gain for football.Said → happened
When the model gives a probability, does it come true that often? Close numbers mean honest probabilities. Each tile checks the model's surest 10% of calls; the calibration chart shows every band.Match result
Strong+4.3%
less error than guessing the average
- Matches tested
- 17,958
- Its surest 10% of calls (52%+)
- said 59%→happened 60%5,388 calls
outright-v3
Goals
Solid+2.1%
less error than guessing the average
- Matches tested
- 17,978
- Its surest 10% of calls (91%+)
- said 94%→happened 94%14,384 calls
goals-v4
Goals by half
Marginal+1.0%
less error than guessing the average
- Matches tested
- 17,736
- Its surest 10% of calls (78%+)
- said 81%→happened 82%8,872 calls
halves-v1
Cards
Strong+4.6%
less error than guessing the average
- Matches tested
- 17,616
- Its surest 10% of calls (81%+)
- said 86%→happened 86%7,048 calls
cards-v2
Corners
Marginal+0.9%
less error than guessing the average
- Matches tested
- 17,601
- Its surest 10% of calls (64%+)
- said 67%→happened 68%5,282 calls
corners-v2
Player stats
Strong+6.5%
less error than guessing the average
- Matches tested
- 17,333
- Its surest 10% of calls (64%+)
- said 72%→happened 71%240,854 calls
player-counts-v2
Goals · calibration
on the line = honest probabilities
Goals · by market
| Market | Said | Happened | Skill | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away team scores | 69% | 70% | +2.4% | |
| Both teams score | 53% | 55% | +1.0% | |
| Over 0.5 goals | 93% | 93% | +0.7% | |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% | 76% | +1.7% | |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 53% | +2.4% | |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% | 30% | +2.9% | |
| Over 4.5 goals | 14% | 15% | +2.4% | |
| Home team scores | 77% | 78% | +2.7% |
Goals · by league
best first · 20+ matches
| # | League | Matches | Skill | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Liga Profesional ArgentinaArgentina | 1,175 | +8.1% | |
| 2 | Super LeagueSwitzerland | 446 | +4.1% | |
| 3 | EredivisieNetherlands | 626 | +4.0% | |
| 4 | BundesligaGermany | 579 | +3.9% | |
| 5 | UEFA Champions League | 442 | +3.8% | |
| 6 | Primeira LigaPortugal | 574 | +3.6% | |
| 7 | Major League SoccerUSA | 1,172 | +3.1% | |
| 8 | La LigaSpain | 729 | +3.0% | |
| 9 | Eerste DivisieNetherlands | 788 | +2.8% | |
| 10 | Coppa ItaliaItaly | 20 | +2.3% | |
| 11 | UEFA Europa LeagueWorld | 81 | +2.1% | |
| 12 | A-LeagueAustralia | 290 | +2.0% | |
| 13 | Jupiler Pro LeagueBelgium | 577 | +1.4% | |
| 14 | Serie AItaly | 731 | +1.4% | |
| 15 | Premier LeagueEngland | 740 | +1.3% | |
| 16 | League CupEngland | 81 | +1.2% | |
| 17 | League OneEngland | 1,156 | +1.1% | |
| 18 | PremiershipScotland | 447 | +1.0% | |
| 19 | Serie ABrazil | 826 | +1.0% | |
| 20 | League TwoEngland | 1,116 | +0.9% | |
| 21 | Segunda DivisiónSpain | 869 | +0.9% | |
| 22 | Ligue 1France | 586 | +0.9% | |
| 23 | Coupe de FranceFrance | 30 | +0.9% | |
| 24 | ChampionshipEngland | 1,166 | +0.7% | |
| 25 | Liga MXMexico | 693 | +0.4% | |
| 26 | Ligue 2France | 595 | +0.3% | |
| 27 | 2. BundesligaGermany | 577 | −0.2% | |
| 28 | UEFA Europa Conference LeagueWorld | 96 | −0.3% | |
| 29 | Serie BItaly | 728 | −0.4% |
Goals · by team
best first · 10+ matches
| # | Team | Matches | Skill | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Deportivo Riestra | 78 | +19.3% | |
| 2 | San Lorenzo | 83 | +19.1% | |
| 3 | San Martin S.J. | 27 | +18.8% | |
| 4 | FC Vaduz | 11 | +18.2% | |
| 5 | Bayern München | 93 | +16.0% | |
| 6 | Inter Miami | 84 | +15.5% | |
| 7 | Huracan | 84 | +15.0% | |
| 8 | PSV Eindhoven | 88 | +14.9% | |
| 9 | Cuiaba | 15 | +14.6% | |
| 10 | Barcelona | 101 | +14.3% | |
| 11 | Adelaide United | 46 | +13.6% | |
| 12 | Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto | 26 | +13.6% | |
| 13 | Platense | 82 | +13.1% | |
| 14 | FK Crvena Zvezda | 12 | +12.0% | |
| 15 | Lanus | 80 | +11.8% | |
| 16 | Gimnasia L.P. | 83 | +11.5% | |
| 17 | Argentinos JRS | 84 | +11.1% | |
| 18 | FC Thun | 46 | +11.1% | |
| 19 | FC Luzern | 74 | +10.8% | |
| 20 | Talleres Cordoba | 77 | +10.4% | |
| 21 | Jong PSV U21 | 79 | +10.1% | |
| 22 | Ceara | 33 | +10.0% | |
| 23 | Boca Juniors | 84 | +9.8% | |
| 24 | Tigre | 80 | +9.8% | |
| 25 | Velez Sarsfield | 79 | +9.7% | |
| 26 | Independiente | 82 | +9.2% | |
| 27 | Godoy Cruz | 48 | +9.1% | |
| 28 | Santa Clara | 65 | +9.1% | |
| 29 | Jong AZ | 79 | +9.0% |
Top 29 of 504 · search for any team