Model record

How every Dupin model has actually performed, by market, league and team.

How to read thisShow

Backtest

Each past match re-predicted using only data from before its kick-off, since Sep 2024. Kept separate from the live record.

Skill

How much less error the model makes than always guessing the market's average rate (Brier skill score). Above 0 beats that guess, below 0 does worse. A few percent is a real gain for football.

Said → happened

When the model gives a probability, does it come true that often? Close numbers mean honest probabilities. Each tile checks the model's surest 10% of calls; the calibration chart shows every band.

Match result

Strong

+4.3%

less error than guessing the average

Matches tested: 17,958
Its surest 10% of calls (52%+): said 59%→happened 60%
5,388 calls

less error than guessing the average

Matches tested: 17,978
Its surest 10% of calls (91%+): said 94%→happened 94%
14,384 calls

less error than guessing the average

Matches tested: 17,736
Its surest 10% of calls (78%+): said 81%→happened 82%
8,872 calls

less error than guessing the average

Matches tested: 17,616
Its surest 10% of calls (81%+): said 86%→happened 86%
7,048 calls

less error than guessing the average

Matches tested: 17,601
Its surest 10% of calls (64%+): said 67%→happened 68%
5,282 calls

less error than guessing the average

Matches tested: 17,333
Its surest 10% of calls (64%+): said 72%→happened 71%
240,854 calls

player-counts-v2

Goals by half · calibration

on the line = honest probabilities

Goals by half · by market

Market	Said	Happened	Skill
Over 0.5 goals · 1st half	70%	71%	+1.1%
Over 1.5 goals · 1st half	34%	35%	+1.1%
Over 0.5 goals · 2nd half	77%	79%	+0.4%
Over 1.5 goals · 2nd half	44%	46%	+0.8%
Goal in both halves	54%	57%	+1.4%

Goals by half · by league

best first · 20+ matches

#	League	Matches	Skill
1	Liga Profesional ArgentinaArgentina	1,160	+6.1%
2	BundesligaGermany	570	+3.4%
3	EredivisieNetherlands	617	+3.3%
4	Major League SoccerUSA	1,157	+1.9%
5	UEFA Europa LeagueWorld	81	+1.7%
6	UEFA Champions League	433	+1.7%
7	Super LeagueSwitzerland	440	+1.7%
8	La LigaSpain	719	+1.6%
9	Eerste DivisieNetherlands	778	+1.5%
10	Primeira LigaPortugal	565	+0.9%
11	Segunda DivisiónSpain	859	+0.8%
12	League TwoEngland	1,103	+0.5%
13	Ligue 1France	577	+0.4%
14	ChampionshipEngland	1,145	+0.3%
15	League OneEngland	1,142	+0.3%
16	A-LeagueAustralia	284	+0.2%
17	Jupiler Pro LeagueBelgium	568	+0.1%
18	Ligue 2France	586	−0.1%
19	Liga MXMexico	684	−0.2%
20	Premier LeagueEngland	730	−0.4%
21	League CupEngland	81	−0.4%
22	2. BundesligaGermany	568	−0.4%
23	PremiershipScotland	444	−0.5%
24	Serie AItaly	721	−0.6%
25	Serie ABrazil	820	−0.6%
26	Serie BItaly	718	−0.7%
27	Coupe de FranceFrance	30	−1.0%
28	UEFA Europa Conference LeagueWorld	96	−1.2%
29	Coppa ItaliaItaly	20	−1.8%

Goals by half · by team

best first · 10+ matches

#	Team	Matches	Skill
1	San Martin S.J.	27	+17.6%
2	FC Vaduz	10	+16.9%
3	Deportivo Riestra	77	+16.9%
4	San Lorenzo	82	+16.6%
5	Cuiaba	15	+15.6%
6	Inter Miami	83	+15.5%
7	PSV Eindhoven	87	+15.4%
8	Bayern München	91	+13.5%
9	Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto	25	+12.8%
10	FK Crvena Zvezda	12	+12.1%
11	Argentinos JRS	83	+11.8%
12	Platense	81	+10.5%
13	Lanus	79	+9.2%
14	Tigre	79	+9.1%
15	Slovan Bratislava	15	+9.1%
16	Qarabag	17	+8.9%
17	Talleres Cordoba	76	+8.9%
18	Barcelona	99	+8.8%
19	Huracan	83	+8.2%
20	Godoy Cruz	48	+8.1%
21	Eintracht Frankfurt	71	+7.9%
22	Farense	29	+7.6%
23	Jong AZ	78	+7.6%
24	Stevenage	96	+7.5%
25	Red Bull Salzburg	14	+7.5%
26	Adelaide United	45	+7.3%
27	Burgos	78	+7.2%
28	Boca Juniors	83	+7.1%
29	Belgrano Cordoba	79	+7.0%

Top 29 of 501 · search for any team