Model record

How every Dupin model has actually performed, by market, league and team.

BacktestInsightsLive record
How to read thisShow
Backtest
Each past match re-predicted using only data from before its kick-off, since Sep 2024. Kept separate from the live record.
Skill
How much less error the model makes than always guessing the market's average rate (Brier skill score). Above 0 beats that guess, below 0 does worse. A few percent is a real gain for football.
Said → happened
When the model gives a probability, does it come true that often? Close numbers mean honest probabilities. Each tile checks the model's surest 10% of calls; the calibration chart shows every band.
Match result
Strong
+4.3%
less error than guessing the average
Matches tested
17,958
Its surest 10% of calls (52%+)
said 59%→happened 60%
5,388 calls
outright-v3
Goals
Solid
+2.1%
less error than guessing the average
Matches tested
17,978
Its surest 10% of calls (91%+)
said 94%→happened 94%
14,384 calls
goals-v4
Goals by half
Marginal
+1.0%
less error than guessing the average
Matches tested
17,736
Its surest 10% of calls (78%+)
said 81%→happened 82%
8,872 calls
halves-v1
Cards
Strong
+4.6%
less error than guessing the average
Matches tested
17,616
Its surest 10% of calls (81%+)
said 86%→happened 86%
7,048 calls
cards-v2
Corners
Marginal
+0.9%
less error than guessing the average
Matches tested
17,601
Its surest 10% of calls (64%+)
said 67%→happened 68%
5,282 calls
corners-v2
Player stats
Strong
+6.5%
less error than guessing the average
Matches tested
17,333
Its surest 10% of calls (64%+)
said 72%→happened 71%
240,854 calls
player-counts-v2

Match result · calibration

on the line = honest probabilities
0%0%25%25%50%50%75%75%100%100%PredictedHappened

Match result · by market

MarketSaidHappenedSkill
Away win31%30%+5.7%
Draw24%26%+0.5%
Home win45%44%+6.1%

Match result · by league

best first · 20+ matches
#LeagueMatchesSkill
1Primeira LigaPortugal574+13.4%
2Serie AItaly731+10.5%
3Coppa ItaliaItaly20+8.7%
4La LigaSpain729+8.5%
5PremiershipScotland447+7.3%
6UEFA Champions League435+7.0%
7Ligue 1France586+6.8%
8BundesligaGermany579+6.6%
9Jupiler Pro LeagueBelgium577+5.9%
10Liga MXMexico693+5.9%
11EredivisieNetherlands626+5.6%
12Premier LeagueEngland740+5.4%
13Serie ABrazil824+5.1%
14UEFA Europa LeagueWorld81+4.3%
15UEFA Europa Conference LeagueWorld96+4.3%
16League CupEngland81+3.8%
17Eerste DivisieNetherlands788+3.4%
18League OneEngland1,154+2.8%
19Major League SoccerUSA1,172+2.6%
20Liga Profesional ArgentinaArgentina1,175+2.4%
21Segunda DivisiónSpain870+2.2%
22Super LeagueSwitzerland446+2.0%
23Ligue 2France595+2.0%
24Serie BItaly728+1.9%
25A-LeagueAustralia290+1.6%
26League TwoEngland1,115+1.6%
27ChampionshipEngland1,157+1.1%
282. BundesligaGermany577+1.1%
29Coupe de FranceFrance30−3.0%

Match result · by team

best first · 10+ matches
#TeamMatchesSkill
1FC Porto68+31.2%
2Barcelona100+30.1%
3Bayern München92+29.9%
4Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto26+27.7%
5Benfica95+26.3%
6Sporting CP88+25.4%
7Paris Saint Germain98+24.5%
8Real Madrid101+23.2%
9Inter100+22.5%
10Slavia Praha10+20.1%
11Celtic93+19.6%
12FC Cartagena37+18.9%
13Sport Recife33+17.7%
14Boavista29+17.1%
15Lecce74+16.7%
16PSV Eindhoven88+16.7%
17Arsenal102+16.6%
18FK Crvena Zvezda12+16.5%
19AS Roma76+16.0%
20AVS57+15.8%
21Union St. Gilloise86+15.8%
22Slovan Bratislava15+15.3%
23Heracles70+14.6%
24Cruz Azul84+14.5%
25Flamengo86+14.3%
26Beerschot VA30+14.2%
27Red Bull Salzburg14+14.2%
28Puebla71+13.9%
29Feyenoord84+13.7%
Top 29 of 504 · search for any team